[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212250 
ORZ000-CAZ000-220045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL ORE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 212250Z - 220045Z

ONGOING TSTMS OVER SWRN ORE SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO
WCENTRAL ORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STG/ISOLATED SVR
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN ORE IN THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS...AS COMPACT UPPER VORT CENTER APPROACHES THE NRN CA COAST
AND ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SWRN ORE PRODUCED SUFFICIENT PRECIP TO
ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN DEWPTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LAST 2
HOURS. ALTHOUGH RENEWED HEATING SHOULD AID IN MIXING OUT MOST OF THE
INCREASE IN DEWPTS THAT HAS OCCURRED...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER THE REGION BY 00Z. INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON...WITH
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR LIKELY. THUS ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH THE
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND DMGG WINDS GIVEN HIGH TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER SWRN ORE
WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL ORE LATER THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
DMGG WINDS REMAINING POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...A GREATER SVR THREAT AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED

..CROSBIE.. 07/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...PQR...

43812274 43672327 43102415 42132389 41952331 42092215
42672138 42922111 43392143 43912196 

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