[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220032 
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1820
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN IND...ERN IL AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656...

VALID 220032Z - 220230Z

CLUSTER OF SVR STORMS DEVELOPING OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN SVR AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z /WW 656
EXPIRATION TIME/ AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HRS BEYOND. THUS A REPLACEMENT
WW THAT WOULD INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN IND INTO WRN OH
APPEARS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.

NEW CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF OUTFLOW BNDRY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IND WWD INTO ECENTRAL IL. REGION REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR STORMS AS MODERATE NWLY FLOW
/35-40 KTS/ SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WAS PRESENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
AN MCV CENTERED OVER WRN MI. COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY...MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG...THE SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID TO
UPPER 70S DEWPTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW TO
AROUND 20 KTS PER 00Z ILX SOUNDING SHOULD OFFSET THE LIMITED CINH
THAT WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF CELL MERGERS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND SEWD MOVEMENT OF AN MCS
WOULD RESULT THAT WOULD TAKE SVR THREAT INTO SRN IND AND POSSIBLY
SWRN OH LATER THIS EVENING AND BEYOND THE 03Z WW 656 EXPIRATION
TIME. THUS A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
AREA PRIOR TO 03Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/22/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

41288590 40998785 40968840 40538864 39888834 39378741
39008567 39438472 39598443 40498417 40818449 

WWWW