[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212233 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-220000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO E-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656...

VALID 212233Z - 220000Z

THROUGH 00Z...PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS FAR S-CNTRL LOWER MI...NERN IND AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN
OH. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MATURE MCS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN
IND AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WI AND IL. LOCAL
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH A SHORT BOWING
SEGMENT FROM ST. JOSEPH AND BRANCH COUNTIES IN SRN LOWER MI INTO
LAGRANGE...STEUBEN...NOBLE AND DE KALB COUNTIES IN NERN IND. FARTHER
S...GUST FRONT HAS OUTRUN REMAINING PORTION OF MCS...LEADING TO A
GENERAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE TOWERS.

RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS SERN
LOWER MI AND NWRN OH REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHICH SHOULD
MAINTAIN EWD PROGRESSION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT BOWING SEGMENT.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND THREAT E OF WW 656 WILL
REMAIN SPATIALLY SMALL AND AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 07/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39438960 42088670 42038378 40688373 40508424 40168606
39348705 

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