[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212212 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-220045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AZ...SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 212212Z - 220045Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NWRN MOGOLLON RIM REGION OVER
NCENTRAL AZ WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NWRN AZ AND
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT...SO A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. 

RADAR IMAGERY FROM FGZ INDICATED CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY OVER WRN COCONINO/YAVAPAI COUNTIES OF NCENTRAL AZ. SFC
ANALYSIS SUPPORTED RADAR IMAGERY OF A DEVELOPING MESOHIGH/COLD POOL
OVER CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER HIGH DESERTS
OF NWRN AZ INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY/SRN NEVADA WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DCAPES
AROUND 1800 J/KG. GIVEN ORGANIZED COLD POOL/GUST FRONT
DEVELOPING...ISOLATED DMGG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION SHOULD
MOVE WNW TOWARDS SFC PRESSURE TROUGH/HOTTER TEMPERATURES ALONG LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IF CONVECTION CAN ORGANIZE MORE...SLIGHTLY
FASTER LINE MOTION WOULD CARRY ISOLATED SVR THREAT INTO THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AROUND 01Z.  

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.25 INCHES...THREAT FOR HVY
RAINFALL MAY ENSUE LATER THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE LINE BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF LAS VEGAS WHICH SHOULD AID IN
SLOWER FORWARD LINE MOVEMENT.

..CROSBIE/HORGAN.. 07/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF...

35591295 35151317 34981443 35561559 36251542 36661411
36271321 

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