[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202208 
TXZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650...

VALID 202208Z - 210015Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD ACROSS
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 650 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WW
650 AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WEST OF WW 650 THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT IN THESE
AREAS AND THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME
00Z...A REPLACEMENT WW WILL BE UNLIKELY.

T.S. EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS INTO THE MTNS OF NERN MX /REF OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST/. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STRENGTH IN EMILY AND
CONSEQUENT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR OVER SOUTH TX. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST...AS EVIDENT BY VWP DATA FROM BRO
WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE 100-200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. THROUGH
00Z...THE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW 650 AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF WW 650 AS OUTER BAND CELLULAR CONVECTION
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WEAKENING OVER
THE AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

27929710 28589781 28559852 28589954 28099991 27579959
25819949 25779827 26969789 

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