[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202118 
AZZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202118Z - 202315Z

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE
MTNS OF CENTRAL/ECENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. ISOLATED SVR
THREAT MAY  INCREASE AS CONVECTION MOVES WWD INTO LOWER FOOTHILLS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EVENTUALLY AS CONVECTION REACHES LOWER DESERTS
AN ORGANIZED SVR WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP...AND A WE WILL MONITOR FOR
A POSSIBLE WW FOR THIS AREA BY 00Z.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS HIGHER TODAY VERSUS 24 HRS AGO...WITH DEWPTS
AVERAGING 2-4 DEGREES C HIGHER. CONSEQUENT SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR CINH TO REMAIN MODERATE OVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS...AROUND 100 J/KG OF MLCINH PER MODIFIED 18Z
PHX/TUS SOUNDING BASED ON 21Z OBS. THUS...A FEW MORE HOURS OF
HEATING WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE WSWWD INTO
LOWER FOOTHILLS/DESERTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...18Z
SOUNDING FROM FGZ INDICATES THAT GIVEN LITTLE CINH AND AROUND 500
J/KG OF MLCAPE/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WINDS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ELY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH COLD POOL DRIVEN OUTFLOW AND
WEAKENING CINH...SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE THREAT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED SVR WINDS POTENTIAL INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER 00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

35551176 35161282 33901299 33161209 32341099 32281034
33090936 33840980 34771108 

WWWW