[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202212 
SDZ000-NEZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 202212Z - 202345Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
INTENSIFYING STORM NEAR RAP. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 2202Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTENSIFYING TSTM NEAR
RAP MOVING 295/20-25 KTS. WHILE RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST AIR
MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OVER THE BLACK
HILLS COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT HAS LIKELY ALLOWED
FOR THE INITIATION OF THIS STORM. CURRENT RAP VWP INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS GIVEN ENELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BENEATH 40-45
KT WLY WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM AGL LAYER. GIVEN ABSENCE OF ANY
DISCERNIBLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS...PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER ONGOING STORM WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF AND/OR WHETHER
ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP.

DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH
ONGOING TSTM. IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED.

..MEAD.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

43640371 44300358 44670291 44480175 44080092 43500089
43040111 42640201 43070319 

WWWW