[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201742 
TXZ000-201945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 650...

VALID 201742Z - 201945Z

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST WITHIN EMBEDDED CELLS
ALONG OUTER CIRCULATION BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY 20Z ACROSS
FAR SERN PORTION OF WW 650...BRO/HRL METRO AREA...AND THUS THIS
PORTION OF WW 650 SHOULD BE CLEARED BY THEN.

LATEST VWP DATA FROM KBRO SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX...WITH SAMPLED 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 400
 M2/S2. VALUES DECREASE NWD FROM BRO...BUT STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH OUTER BAND CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ONE CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING FROM SRN KENEDY COUNTY WWD TO NRN
ZAPATA COUNTY IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. SOUTH OF THIS BAND...A
SECONDARY BAND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
EMBEDDED IN IT AS WELL AS IT ROTATES WWD ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
RIVER VALLEY.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

27879702 27909947 25749947 25719702 

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