[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201707 
TXZ000-201900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 201707Z - 201900Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST NORTH OF WW 650 ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM VICTORIA WWD TO NEAR/SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOPING IN WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUTER CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE EMILY CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF MCALLEN TX. MODERATE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100-150 M2/S2...EXISTS FROM THE
LATITUDE OF VICTORIA SWD TO THE NRN EDGE OF WW 650. CONVECTIVE CELLS
WEST OF VICTORIA WERE SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL ROTATION...
INDICATING THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. RECENT SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AREA...EAST OF SAN ANTONIO AND
EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE SWD INTO WW 650 BY MID AFTERNOON. THUS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SHORT TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED NORTH OF
WW 650 A WW MAY NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

29689760 29389856 28809933 27919934 27949814 27909706
28439650 

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