[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201632
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201632 
OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL AND NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 201632Z - 201730Z

CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ERN IA APPEARS TO BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BDRY
LAYER...AND THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER NRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE AREA SHORTLY.

REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATES 40 KT REAR INFLOW JET AROUND 2 KM OVER
ERN IA. DESPITE MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES /2-3 MB PER HOUR/ OVER ERN IA WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL IL AND EVENTUALLY NRN
IND OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HRS. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE REMAINING CINH...AND OVER 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. THUS THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
CONVECTIVE LINE BY 18Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

41778661 42328816 42348946 41779033 41139100 40829112
40439096 40139049 39938841 39788711 39848560 40528476
41628481