[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201627
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201626 
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-201800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 201626Z - 201800Z

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OMAHA NEB. A
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE CLUSTER MOVES
EWD ACROSS SRN IA.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS FAR
WRN IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. THIS IS CREATING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SW IA WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE
700 MB AS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS COMBINED WITH 35 TO 40
KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE AXIS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AS THE STORMS
SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED AS THE STORMS REACH THE
VICINITY OF DES MOINES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

41599756 42479729 42499614 42269445 41699301 40569327
40709552 41099724