[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200039 
NEZ000-SDZ000-200245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD THROUGH N CNTRL AND NWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200039Z - 200245Z

STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FROM CNTRL SD INTO NWRN AND N CNTRL NEB
MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF
THE THREAT IN THIS REGION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY.

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM W CNTRL SD INTO NWRN NEB. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WHERE DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...MIXING AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED THE CAP. STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG THE
THETA-E AXIS DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH
MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. A FEW STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE A
SEVERE THREAT AS THEY MOVE EWD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
SUGGESTS SOME STORMS MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A STRONGER CAP AND EVENTUALLY
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL.

..DIAL.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

41080212 42580127 44120066 45020028 44869938 42939995
41180128