[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200301 
TXZ000-200430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646...

VALID 200301Z - 200430Z

TORNADO WATCH 646 REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THROUGH 6Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE EMILY. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NERN COAST OF MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TX.  

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY IS WELL WITHIN RANGE OF BROWNSVILLE
RADAR WITH NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 3Z ADVISORY POSITION 120
STATUTE MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE WITH MOVEMENT WNWWD AT 6KT. EARLIER
SPIRAL BAND ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TX HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE LOW DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS UNTIL INTERIOR BANDS OF THE HURRICANE IMPACT THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL CELLULAR ACTIVITY
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERNMOST BAND SE OF BROWNSVILLE SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADO ACTIVITY AS SYSTEM MIGRATES CLOSER TO THE NERN
COAST OF MEXICO. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM BRO REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH CELLS...GIVEN ROUGHLY 35DEG OF VEERING AND
40KT SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER.

..BANACOS.. 07/20/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 

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