[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192231 
TXZ000-200030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646...

VALID 192231Z - 200030Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE OVER WW 646 THROUGH THE
MID-EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE OVER DEEP
SOUTH TX ALONG AND A FEW COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MEXICAN
BORDER...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY.

CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY AT 2230Z WAS ROUGHLY 125 MILES SE OF BRO.
PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL NHC FORECASTS FOR UP TO DATE DETAILS ON
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF EMILY. EMILY REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT...AND
ADDITIONAL OUTER BANDS OF EMILY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EWD INTO WW
646 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A STRONG LOW LEVEL ELY JET MOVING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS SPEED
MAX WAS LIKELY 50-75 MILES OFFSHORE AT 22Z...AND SHOULD REACH THE
COAST BETWEEN 00-02Z. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
ALREADY...RECENT VWP AT BRO INDICATING AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
SRH...STRONGER AND MORE ELY COMPONENT TO THE 1 KM WINDS SHOULD AID
IN AN INCREASE OF THIS 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 300 M2/S2. MOST LIKELY
POTENTIAL AREA FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE WITH THE NEXT
CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES WWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW 646 AFTER 00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

28109622 25699712 25699931 28109853 

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