[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192131 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-192330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN ME...NH...ERN VT AND MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192131Z - 192330Z

THREAT FOR SVR STORMS APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE ERN HALF OF WW
645 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WW VALID TIME /00Z/. ISOLATED SVR
THREAT MAY OCCUR TO THE E-NE OF WW 645 ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT
OVERALL LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW. 

SEMI-ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM WRN ME SWD INTO
CENTRAL MA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AROUND 25 KTS. RECENT OBS
AT MT. WASHINGTON INDICATED A GUST TO 52 KTS. THUS...DMGG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF WW 645 DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CURRENT MOTIONS INDICATE THAT
THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL REACH THE EDGE OF WW 645 AROUND 23Z.
UPSTREAM OF THIS LINE THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED
SUFFICIENTLY THAT ADDITIONAL SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY
AND THIS AREA MAY BE CLEARED FROM WW 645 IN THE NEXT STATUS MESSAGE.
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE...THREAT FOR SVR MAY MOVE OUT OF WW 645 INTO THE
AREA BY 00Z. HOWEVER...LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE
THREAT DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

45326814 45197018 45147048 41997180 41947082 43826972
44756701 45326728 

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