[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192026 
SDZ000-NDZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL ND/NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192026Z - 192200Z

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN SCNTRL ND AND NRN SD. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN
THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD ACROSS
NCNTRL ND WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM CNTRL ND INTO SE MT.
TWO SMALL MESOLOWS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT IN SW ND AND FAR NW
SD. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOWS AND FRONT IS ENHANCING
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS APPEARS THE
MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SUGGESTS STORMS INITIATE NEAR BISMARK AND EXPAND EWD/SEWD ACROSS
SERN ND AND NCNTRL SD WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS WEAKENING IN SRN ND AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTING
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE...MOVING EWD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IN SERN ND WITH THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

46400165 45870274 45390263 44910111 45549899 46079733
46589770 47279882 47629984 47020095 

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