[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 192006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192006 
KSZ000-192200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 192006Z - 192200Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PULSE LIKE NATURE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER ORGANIZATION.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SEWD TO NEAR CFV.
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. GIVEN FOCUSED
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND LITTLE REMAINING
CINH...ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
KS BY 22Z. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE REGION PER
VWP/PROFILER DATA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS AROUND 25 DEG F SUGGESTS
THAT ISOLATED DMGG WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD
BE DOMINATED BY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THUS GENERALLY SLOW NWD MOVEMENT
CAN BE EXPECTED.

..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

37329581 38649633 39409797 39479900 38939899 38259837
37549736 37219636 

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