[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191951 
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-192145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN VA...SWRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191951Z - 192145Z

ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINES TRY TO
ORGANIZE WHILE MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN VA AND SWRN MD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL/ISOLATED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LATEST REGIONAL VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION OVER WRN VA WAS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A 30 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AT 5 KM MOVING
ACROSS WV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAK
LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALREADY OBSERVED...ALONG WITH MODERATE MID
LEVELS WINDS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT
MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LEAD OR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY
MOVE OUT OF WV/WRN VA INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL/ERN VA AND SWRN MD. HIGHER TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS OVER ERN
VA...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S
...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELL/LINE MERGERS SHOULD FAVOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SVR WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

38647733 38437810 38207867 37437958 36597921 36547819
36527646 36597601 37817585 38627648 

WWWW