[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191856 
AZZ000-192030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191856Z - 192030Z

SCATTERED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER ERN AZ AND SW NM. THE
STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING WWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE AND A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WHITE MTNS AND MOGOLLON RIM
DUE TO SFC HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PLATEAU IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -2 TO -6 C. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL RESULT IN
AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE CELLS PROPAGATE WWD INTO THE DESERTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

34091295 35021231 34611077 33410919 31560925 31380995
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