[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191658 
TXZ000-191900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 191658Z - 191900Z

OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE EMILY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TX
OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INITIALLY...SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FCST TO BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADO
POTENTIAL BY MID-AFTERNOON. THUS A TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 19Z.

RECENT 88-D IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES PRIMARY OUTER
CONVECTIVE BAND OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES EAST
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND MOVING WWD AROUND 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION OF
CURRENT/FCST MOTION WILL TAKE THIS BAND INTO SOUTH PADRE AROUND
1745Z...AND INTO BRO/HARLINGEN AREAS BETWEEN 18-19Z. ALTHOUGH VWP AT
BRO SHOWS VERY LITTLE TURNING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ATTM...SRH FROM
50-75 M2/S2...STRONGER AND MORE VEERED /ELY/ 1 KM WINDS ARE FCST TO
MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 19-21Z ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX ON THE ERN SIDE OF
THE MAIN OUTER BAND. MEANWHILE...AS EMILY APPROACHES THE NERN MX
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX WILL VEER FROM
NLY TO NELY WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OVERALL NET RESULT
SHOULD BE INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH RECENT RUC/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH BY 20Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

27679724 27419840 26509879 26179833 26019718 27009737 

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