[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 191507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191507 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-191630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 191507Z - 191630Z

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS APPEARS TO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...THE OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO SLIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN
ONTARIO WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED IN ERN NY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. AS
SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN ERN NY...VT...CT AND WRN ME WITH CONVECTION
GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES TO
AROUND 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION.

..BROYLES.. 07/19/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

44907346 44997125 46017016 47266882 46816789 44786721
43506983 43187019 41887001 41127123 41067311 42047410
43327417