[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181629 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-181830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL...NRN/CENTRAL IND...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181629Z - 181830Z

MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS AREA AS
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EWD ACROSS NERN AND CENTRAL IL.  A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE HOUR.

AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO THE LOW 80S
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES AT OR
JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG.  ANALYSIS OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM ARE JUST ABOVE 7C/KM INDICATING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

41808759 41348818 40748902 39849006 39508817 39618616
39738517 39908480 40398412 41388348 41638403 41798586 

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