[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181434 
MIZ000-181630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181434Z - 181630Z

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OVER NWRN LOWER MI. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI
WITHIN THE HOUR.

ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ON LAND/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE MI. IN ADDITION...MORNING RAOB
DATA AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NEWD
THRU WI AT THIS TIME INITIATING UPWARD ASCENT ACROSS THIS AREA. 
MORNING RAOBS ALSO INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT OVER LOWER
MI WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THUS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED
1500-2000 J/KG.  SOUNDINGS VERIFY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /USING THE APX RAOB/ ARE NEAR 7.0C/KM
INDICATING THAT MANY OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41868334 41798424 41818538 42078666 43008668 44348621
45168579 45968454 44988265 43648221 42568244 

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