[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 182057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182057 
NMZ000-AZZ000-182300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE/SCNTRL AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 182057Z - 182300Z

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SE INTO
SCNTRL AZ AS STORMS MOVE SWWD ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.

DRIER AIR OVER NRN AZ HAS SEEMINGLY CONTRIBUTED TO A SLOWER
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NRN/CNTRL
AZ THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING ON THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF SE AZ...AS WELL AS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.
ADDITIONALLY...REMNANT MCV OVER THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME
SE AZ IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE MAY FURTHER FOCUS CONVECTION INTO THE TUCSON AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

12Z RAOB FROM TUCSON/PHOENIX FEATURED SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
THIS MORNING TO YESTERDAY...WITH LATEST GPS PRECIP WATER
MEASUREMENTS CONFIRMING SIMILAR PRECIP WATER VALUES TO YESTERDAY
ACROSS SRN AZ. GIVEN ENOUGH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/SUFFICIENT COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION...15-20 KTS OF STEERING
NELY FLOW PER RUC SOUNDINGS AND PHOENIX/TUCSON WSR-88D VWPS WOULD
SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. HOT TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 100 F AND DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

33961120 33771027 32840915 32270871 31340887 31581099
32031190 33071246 34111209