[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172345 
MNZ000-WIZ000-180145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172345Z - 180145Z

STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MN DURING THE
PAST HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE NECESSARY.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH SWRN MN AND WILL
CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS IS FINALLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER N CNTRL MN THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL
ZONE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN VICINITY OF FRONT MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT TO ROTATE. WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY TEND TO
LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 07/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

47749068 46219246 44689382 44649455 46709459 48469305