[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 180221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180220 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-180415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS THROUGH SERN NEB AND NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642...

VALID 180220Z - 180415Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
NEXT FEW HOURS..PRIMARILY ACROSS SRN AND ERN NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO
EXTREME NRN KS. A WW E OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642 IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND W OF A COLD
FRONT FROM SERN MN THROUGH IA AND INTO SRN/SERN NEB NEXT FEW HOURS.
ACTIVITY OVER NEB HAS TENDED TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE
LIFT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO OVERCOME EFFECTS OF APPARENT STRONGER CAP IN
THAT REGION. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONGEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THE POST FRONTAL STORMS OVER NEB HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZATION THAN ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN IA.
DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE ACROSS IA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT
WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES THAN FARTHER W. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
THREAT. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO EXTREME NRN KS AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SEWD.

..DIAL.. 07/18/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

41509378 40089843 40000079 40709964 41399797 42349565
43289438 44459342 43989209 

WWWW