[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172218 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KS AND SRN/ERN NEB INTO WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 172218Z - 180015Z

CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
INITIATION OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN/ERN NEB
INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

MID LEVEL CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS HAS HINDERED HEATING ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN/SRN NEB INTO WRN IA FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CAP
AROUND 700 MB SEEMINGLY INHIBITING SFC BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION
THUS FAR PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WCNTRL/NRN
KS...SUB-SYNOPTIC SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG COLD FRONT INVOF HLC/HILL
CITY KS...WHERE TEMPS HAVE BREACHED 100 F OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
DEGREE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY YET LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC BASED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING FROM
NW/WCNTRL KS INTO SCNTRL/SE NEB...WITH MOST RECENT VIS SATELLITE
TRENDS REFLECTING SOME ENHANCED CU INVOF THE FRONT.

PROVIDED INITIATION...REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS PORTRAY MODEST
20-25 KTS VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE SFC PORTION OF THE
FRONT...INCREASING TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CNTRL/SW NEB. RELATIVELY GREATER AREAL COVERAGE
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY COME LATER
THIS EVENING...AS MODEST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH SWD
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

..GUYER.. 07/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38430121 38820175 39700158 41169871 42469713 42499680
42519552 41219521 39689752 38919938 

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