[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171943 
AZZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171943Z - 172145Z

OVER NEXT FEW HOURS...TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING...AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ALONG MOGOLLON RIM FROM NEAR
FLG SEWD TOWARD NM BORDER.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE GENERALLY SWD OFF RIM INTO LOWER DESERTS AND
PRODUCE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOWS. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IN 20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR RIM
CONVECTION TO MOVE SWD TO SSWWD WHILE PRODUCING STRONG-SEVERE
OUTFLOW WINDS. OUTFLOWS FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY COALESCE AND FORM
A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM.  VWP AND RUC SOUNDING WINDS INDICATE
DEEP LAYER OF NLY TO NNELY FLOW DIRECTED AWAY FROM OROGRAPHIC
INITIATION AREA INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN
IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S OVER PHX-TUS CORRIDOR...LOW-MID 40S EWD
TOWARD SAD.  EVEN CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL HEATING/MIXING...DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY RICH OVER THIS REGION WITH 1-1.5 INCH PW
INDICATED IN MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS-DERIVED OUTPUT. 
EXPECT 200-500 J/KG MLCAPE ATOP VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTING EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND ACCELERATION OF DOWNDRAFTS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

35091160 34991142 34571121 34251097 34051062 33970991
33590936 33180916 32500933 32070966 31731027 31711081
32031139 32911255 34801178 

WWWW