[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 171653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171652 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-171845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN MN...EXTREME ERN SD...EXTREME SERN
ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 171652Z - 171845Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM INVOF MN/ND
BORDER SSWWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN SD...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING NEWD INTO
WRN AND NWRN MN.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NEAR LINE FROM
HCO...GFK...MHE.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS AREA OVER NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...PRECEDED BY WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE LINE NOW EVIDENT
OVER EXTREME WRN MN AND NWRN IA.  PREFRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
HEAT DIABATICALLY AND DESTABILIZE NEAR SFC.  AS TEMPS REACH LOW-MID
90S F...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.  TSTMS FORMING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC
FRONT MAY CATCH UP WITH CONFLUENCE LINE OVER WRN MN.  ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO AREA OF RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW FARTHER E WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO ENHANCED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
IN WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...WITH UP TO 50 KT 0-6
KM SHEAR NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ONLY 20-30 KT OVER SERN SD.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE...HOWEVER FILLING OF THAT
LINE MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER AND CINH
EVIDENT IN 600-700 MB LAYER FROM 12Z BIS RAOB...EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NRN MN IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

48589339 46779405 45589456 44159553 43319754 45329692
46989671 49009630 49009515 49399515 49369502 49369491
49329484 49179480 48899468 48769469 48719454 48699428
48639422 48629384 48519379 48519352