[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170610 
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-170715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...NW SD...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 641...

VALID 170610Z - 170715Z

MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY...POSSIBLY WITHIN NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...APPEARS TO RAPIDLY
BE SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.  THIS IS WHERE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...IN FAVORABLE MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING
THERMAL RIDGE. SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME CONFINED TO MOIST
POST-SURFACE FRONTAL REGIME...WHERE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
COOLING WEAKENS INHIBITION.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING OVERNIGHT. 
MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE
SEVERE THREAT...BUT STRONGEST STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR.. 07/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

46830452 47540337 48510198 48700063 48389962 46850062
46230160 45320277 44900407 44560537 45280584 46180499 

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