[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 170235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170234 
MNZ000-NDZ000-170400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 170234Z - 170400Z

STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH NERN ND AND EVENTUALLY FAR NWRN MN
LATER THIS EVENING WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

FORCING FOR ASCENT N OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD MAINTAIN SUPPORT FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
NEWD THROUGH NRN ND AND EVENTUALLY NWRN MN NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING STORMS OVER NERN ND
AND NWRN MN WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY POSE A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...FORCING
MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENT NEXT FEW HOURS FOR STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH
NERN ND AND FAR NWRN MN.

..DIAL.. 07/17/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48249619 47869719 47739920 48329969 48959883 48929616 

WWWW