[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161942 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-162115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MT...EXTREME NERN WY...WRN ND...NWRN
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161942Z - 162115Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WIND SHIFT LINE AND DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM
SFC LOW JUST SE BIL...ENEWD TO BETWEEN MLS AND BROADUS...THEN ESEWD
ACROSS HARDING/PERKINS/ZIEBACH COUNTIES SD.  THIS DENOTES NRN
PERIPHERY OF MOST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DRYING...AND SHOULD
SHIFT NWD THROUGH BHK AND SWRN ND DURING NEXT FEW HOURS AS INTENSE
HEATING CONTINUES.  MIDLEVEL CONVECTION -- EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY
OVER NERN MT -- IS OCCURRING IN ZONE OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT IS SHIFTING EWD TOWARD WRN ND. 
THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SFC-BASED AND INTENSIFY THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON AS INSOLATION N OF PRESENT DRYLINE POSITION CONTINUES TO
ERODE SBCINH...WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG IN RUC SOUNDINGS
MODIFIED FOR 60S SFC DEW POINTS OBSERVED AROUND GDV/BHK/SDY.  DEW
POINT AT DIK HAS RISEN ABOVE 70 F.  STRONG AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL
FLOWS ARE EVIDENT IN VWP...WITH BACKED SFC FLOW N OF DRYLINE
ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND
50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARS INDICATE BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER S...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INVOF MT/WY BORDER WILL
MOVE EWD ATOP VERY WELL MIXED LAYER...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS GIVEN STRENGTHENING FLOWS.

..EDWARDS.. 07/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

45060612 45700699 46860672 47960479 48480288 48350168
47330128 45950118 44950109 44860307 44800531 

WWWW