[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 161410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161410 
NDZ000-161615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OPTIONS CENTRAL/WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 161410Z - 161615Z

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD
20-25 KT ACROSS MO RIVER AREA SW MOT AND ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND
WSW BIS.  OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
7-8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  12Z 850 MB CHART SAMPLED STRONG
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER REGION.  THIS IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN STEEP
LAPSE RATES AMIDST PLUME OF INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED ABOVE SFC.
 THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ND...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY COUPLES AND
RESULTS IN SLIGHT WEAKENING OF 25-30 KT LLJ.  BIS RAOB AND MODIFIED
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...HOWEVER VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT -- IN
MID/UPPER LEVELS OF CLOUD-BEARING LAYER -- WILL LIMIT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS.. 07/16/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

45960264 48990400 49000131 45969973 

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