[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151949 COR
WIZ000-MNZ000-152145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN MN...EXTREME NWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151949Z - 152145Z

CORRECTED FOR DIRECTIONAL TYPO

CAP IS BREAKING INVOF COLD FRONT OVER AREA BETWEEN DLH-BRD...AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW TOWARD NRN PORTION
MN/SD BORDER.  ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WHILE CELLS STILL ARE RELATIVELY DISCRETE. 
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
HIB...BRD...30 W ATY...MOVING ESE AT 10-15 KT. WEAK THERMAL
BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT S AND SW OF LAKE BREEZE...FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY WI
SWWD ACROSS PINE COUNTY MN...THEN NWWD TO INTERSECTION WITH FRONT
OVER CENTRAL AITKIN COUNTY MN...WHERE ISOLATED MULTICELL TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED
CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC HEATING INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S F...AND DEW
POINTS LOW 70S...CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 3000-4000 J/KG. LOW-MIDLEVEL
FLOW APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER THIS
AREA -- 10-20 KT BELOW 400 MB AS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA AND
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  EXPECT VERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN WEAK OVER
REGION...LIMITING ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...IN SUCH
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS PROVIDING LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT...A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS OR HAIL REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS.. 07/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

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