[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132118 
PAZ000-140015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0418 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 132118Z - 140015Z

TSTM LINES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL/SCENTRAL PA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS.
OVERALL THE SVR THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER ECENTRAL PA WILL MOVE SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN
PA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
AROUND 2500 J/KG/ AND WEAKLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTIVE LINE. AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS OVER NRN VA/WV HAS DEVELOPED A WEAK COLD
POOL AND THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO SCENTRAL PA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THE OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE LINE MAY MERGE
OVER CENTRAL/SCENTRAL PA /TO THE SOUTH OF UNV/ AROUND 01Z...WITH HVY
RAIN THE DOMINANT THREAT OVER THIS AREA GIVEN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WITH PW/S AROUND 1.7 INCHES.

..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

41257673 40957837 40477864 40097856 39837816 39847772
39907694 40087614 40487576 

WWWW