[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131940 
MTZ000-IDZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CENTRAL MT AND CENTRAL MTNS OF ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131940Z - 132215Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS
OF ID INTO SWRN MT BY 22Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER
AND BETTER ORGANIZED INTO SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AND THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS OF IDAHO NEWD INTO SWRN MT AND OVER THE BEARTOOTH MTNS.
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES
FROM 1000-1500 J/KG AND ONLY 25-50 J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINING AS LOWER
50S DEWPTS HAVE REMAINED DESPITE DEEP MIXING. GIVEN MODERATE MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH 50-55 KTS OF FLOW AT 4 KM...SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /AOA 40 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUS LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL AND NARROW
AXIS OVER CENTRAL ID/SWRN MT...A WW FOR THIS AREA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...AS STG-ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION MOVES/DEVELOPS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN MT AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SCENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AFTER 21Z...GREATER INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM
1500-2000 J/KG/ AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF SVR THREAT SUGGESTS
THAT A WW IS POSSIBLE BY 21Z.

..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

45351038 45011139 44631266 44101400 44911447 46171326
46751245 47711091 47690942 46530842 45740910