[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 132210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132210 
GAZ000-140115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN GA

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS....HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 132210Z - 140115Z

CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL MERGE WITH ONGOING
ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER
ECENTRAL/SERN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE SVR
THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SAVANNAH NWWD TO JEFFERSON AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SC. CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER CENTRAL GA WAS MOVING EWD AROUND 25 KTS...AND IS SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG/
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY...IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS AS IT MOVES INTO ECENTRAL/SERN GA
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE MERGES WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS AND/OR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THERE
IS EXPECTED TO BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND ISOLATED
DMGG WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST ELY FLOW TO THE
EAST OF THE OUTFLOW/SEE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...STORM MOTIONS ARE LIKELY
TO DIMINISH AS MERGERS OCCUR  AND HVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES UP TO
2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR.

..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

32278119 33168197 33008277 31828255 31688149 

WWWW