[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131837 
MTZ000-132100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 131837Z - 132100Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL MT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BNDRY
LAYER AND BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO NERN MT IN THE NEXT 1-3 HRS.
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW BY 21Z.

RECENT TRENDS IN NLDN SHOWS INCREASING AMT OF COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING
OVER NCENTRAL MT WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE INDICATIVE OF
CONVECTION GRADUALLY BECOMING ROOTED IN THE BNDRY LAYER. DESPITE
TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOWER-MID 90S OVER NERN MT WITH DEWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT AROUND 100-150
J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINED AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEG F BEFORE
CINH BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH STORM SCALE EFFECTS MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET THE CINH
AND AID IN QUICKER BOUNDARY LAYER ROOTING OF THE CONVECTION. GIVEN
VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO 650 MB ALONG WITH MLCAPES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ABOVE THIS LAYER...AND 30-35 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW...AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE. GIVEN
RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED TO AOB 35 KTS.  UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL BE LIMITED AND MORE
MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR STORM MODE CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER WHEN
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THUS ISOLATED DMGG
WINDS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 07/13/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

49030737 48560849 47700927 47120911 46980722 47110447
48930407 

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