[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121823 
NYZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CENTRAL AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121823Z - 122030Z

ISOLATED DMGG WINDS GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY SWWD OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO CANADA JUST NORTH OF U.S
BORDER. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED SE FROM THIS LOW INTO SERN NY.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. GIVEN
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WARM/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...REGION REMAINS ON THE WLY FRINGE OF MODERATE NLY FLOW
ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KTS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR HAIL AS WELL. UNLESS CONVECTION
CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGH STORM SCALE PROCESSES...A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44797441 43927371 42327365 41797393 41877475 42197558
42177619 42997616 44267594