[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122010 
COZ000-NMZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122010Z - 122215Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND 
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL SFC BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA. ONE OF THE MORE WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A LOW
OVER NRN EL PASO COUNTY NEWD TO JUST WEST OF AKRON. THIS BOUNDARY
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD SLOW IT/S WWD ADVANCEMENT AND LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PRE-EXISTING PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD AID IN INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DEN METRO AREA BY 22Z. AN ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SERN CO MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SVR
STORMS FROM THE RATON RIDGE NEWD TO NEAR LA JUNTA.

A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISO DMGG WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. IN ADDITION...NLY FLOW AROUND 25-30 KTS
AS OBSERVED BY PROFILER/VWP DATA BENEATH SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION AND ISOLATED SVR HAIL AS WELL. UNLESS BETTER ORGANIZATION
BECOMES EVIDENT...OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT ANTICIPATED WILL PRECLUDE
A WW.

..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

40660325 39900479 39000540 38000515 37160453 36980313
37750237 39700226 

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