[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121808 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PARTS OF MS/AL INTO NRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 121808Z - 122015Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL MS/AL INTO NRN GA. 
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY EXCEEDING 1.5-2 INCHES PER HOUR...
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANT FLOW
REGIME OF DENNIS FROM AR TO TN TO ERN KY/OH.  SURFACE MESO-ANALYSIS
INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NERN GA SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
AL INTO CENTRAL MS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.  GIVEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP 20-25 KT WSWLY
WINDS...STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS.  THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES WET MICROBURSTS
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT...WITH PRE-EXISTING MOISTURE LADEN
SOIL CONDITIONS SUGGESTING A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR THESE GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.  HIGH PW VALUES /1.75 TO 2 INCH/ PER 12Z
SOUNDINGS...AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES.

..PETERS.. 07/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...JAN...

34668407 34968341 34258278 33148389 32258622 31978840
32208950 32588963 33188704 

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