[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121743 
OKZ000-KSZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS AND NCENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121743Z - 122015Z

CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWD MOVING
MCV FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN NEB MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 25 KTS ACROSS
SCENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY NCENTRAL OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STG STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS
/ELLSWORTH AND SALINE COUNTIES/ HAS RECENTLY ESTABLISHED A SMALL
COLD POOL. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE KSN WEATHERLAB WHICH INDICATED
40 MPH NLY WINDS RECENTLY AT ELLSWORTH HIGH SCHOOL WITH A TEMP
AROUND 71 F WHILE LINCOLN JR/SR HIGH INDICATED SLY WINDS AROUND 35
MPH WITH TEMP AROUND 72 F. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT GUST FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM INITIAL STG STORMS.
GIVEN NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 20-25 KT NLY FLOW THROUGH THE 850-500 MB
LAYER AND LITTLE IF ANY SLY COMPONENT IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT TO KEEP CONVECTION SUSTAINING ITSELF ALONG 25 KT SWD
MOVING GUST FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED. HOWEVER...WITH A
SMALL COLD POOL BEGINNING TO BE ESTABLISHED...THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUST FRONT FOR NEW
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING /ALBEIT MARGINAL/
SVR WIND THREAT SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS AND EVENTUALLY NCENTRAL
OK...ESPECIALLY IF INDIVIDUAL ISOLATED CELLS MERGE WITH THE GUST
FRONT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WET
MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH MID LEVEL DRY POCKET PER 12Z
UA ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS AND 2000-2500 MLCAPE AXIS EXTENDING N-S FROM
SCENTRAL KS INTO NCENTRAL OK.

..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38849769 38779840 37999866 36739857 36299849 36139837
36049709 36509648 38069670 

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