[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121720 
MSZ000-ARZ000-121845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121720Z - 121845Z

ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO THE ESE ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN INTO SERN AR THIS AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN
AR...WITH THIS MID LEVEL FEATURE EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE ESE INTO
SERN AR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED SWWD
FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF DENNIS ACROSS AR FROM NE-SW AND THEN WWD
ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG/S OF THIS
BOUNDARY WERE IN THE 70S WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL
MAINTAIN THIS INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE GENERALLY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AIDING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS TO
THE ESE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SERN AR...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

..PETERS.. 07/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34809358 34919251 34629078 33549110 33619256 34009400