[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120033 
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-120230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB/ERN CO/WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635...

VALID 120033Z - 120230Z

CONTINUE WW.

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO THROUGH WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  STORMS SEEM TO BE
FORMING PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED
WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG IS SUPPORTING A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT BENEATH 25-30 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.

LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT.  HOWEVER...CONSOLIDATION OF
CONVECTION INTO AT LEAST A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE
ON NOSE OF 25-30 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK /BY 02-03Z/. IF THIS
OCCURS...ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...
EAST OF SOUTHWESTERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS IN LOWER LEVELS PROVIDES
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND SURFACE COLD POOL EVOLUTION
WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING RISK
OF LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 07/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

38700423 39750402 41720349 43170309 43200034 38730158