[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112058 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112058Z - 112230Z

AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF SEVERE WATCH.

TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF NNE-SSW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH FAR WRN MN/FAR NW IA. LATEST RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ORIENTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT. WOOD
LAKE MN PROFILER AND SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP SUGGEST ONLY 20-25 KTS
OF MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

46159590 46219412 44789406 42539538 41949671 42339692
43579661