[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112034 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-112230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE/ECNTRL CO AND SE WY/WRN NEB/FAR NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112034Z - 112230Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT RANGE/HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SPREAD SSEWD REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR
SE WY/FAR NE CO...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
SUPPORT EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE FROM THE SE WY/CO FRONT RANGE INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BASED ON
RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN MODEST NWLY FLOW PRESENT
ALOFT...ELY COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

..GUYER.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

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