[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111924 
MNZ000-NDZ000-112130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111924Z - 112130Z

ISOLD SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.

ON GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN. AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S F...AMIDST MOIST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F
DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS/ABERDEEN RAOBS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS NOW RELATIVELY
UNCAPPED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS/ LARGELY ORIENTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS RATHER
QUICKLY AS THEY PROGRESS NEWD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

..GUYER.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

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