[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111900 
MEZ000-112030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111900Z - 112030Z

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SSW
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN ISOLATED
THREAT AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WW IS
NOT EXPECTED.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED
NEARLY N-S ALONG THE ERN ME/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A WARM
FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE ME COAST. 
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING SWD OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
ME IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER ME IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...BUT A 50 KT NNWLY SPEED MAX WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.  THUS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

43527008 44766991 45896908 46126783 45596741 44816694
44436736 43986889 

WWWW