[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110308 
GAZ000-ALZ000-110415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...AL/GA/NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 632...633...

VALID 110308Z - 110415Z

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO TONIGHT IS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RISK APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF DENNIS...NOW SOUTHWEST OF SELMA
AL...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD TREK ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS NEAR CIRCULATION ARE STILL LARGE...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME TORNADO
POTENTIAL.  PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS POSSIBLE MITIGATING EFFECTS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH...GIVEN NEAR
SATURATED/MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERE...IS MINIMIZING BUOYANCY OF BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS.

IT SEEMS ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON RETURN OF MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS FROM 
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE
LOW.  THIS COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
LOW...NORTH OF MONTGOMERY THROUGH THE BIRMINGHAM/TUSCALOOSA
AREAS...WHERE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY BE. 
HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING MAY BE TOO LOW TO CONTINUE A
TORNADO WATCH.

..KERR.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...

34088770 34028654 33508569 33058503 31968562 31978641
32368724 33468825 

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