[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110054 
NDZ000-SDZ000-110230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND AND CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634...

VALID 110054Z - 110230Z

VALID PORTION OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 634 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS/ISOLD SUPERCELLS -- WITH ONLY LIMITED E/NE
MOVEMENT -- CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANGLING
NNE-SSW ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AMBIENT AIRMASS INVOF/AHEAD OF THE
STORMS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...HIGHLIGHTED BY EXTREME 5000 J/KG
MUCAPE OBSERVED IN 00Z BISMARK RAOB. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO/MAXIMIZED WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH CONTINUAL
QUICK EVOLUTION OF LINEAR SEGMENTS EXPECTED.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET /40 KTS/
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS DURING THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. THIS INCREASING
LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME AND DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE COLD
POOLS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A GRADUAL EWD EXPANSION OF ACTIVITY
THROUGH REMAINDER OF WW 634 INTO ERN ND/THROUGH CNTRL SD.

..GUYER.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

48470066 48929937 48859809 48059792 47199807 46179871
44969902 44329929 43230010 43290120 44130159 46170127
47130129 

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